New Delhi: If Lok Sabha elections were to be held today, Narendra Modi-led Bharatiya Janata Party will emerge as the front-runner, according to ABP News-Nielsen National Poll.
The latest pre-poll survey predicts a big surge for BJP from the last election, taking the seat count for the National Democratic Alliance that it leads to 233. That compares with 159 Lok Sabha seats for NDA in 2009.
The Opinion Poll has found that NDA is set to win 233 seats in the 543-seat parliament while the incumbent UPA-II government is projected to win mere 119 seats.
Figure below displays the break-up of seats:
UPA 119: East 22 (142) North 27 (151), South 35 (134), West 25 (116)
NDA 233: East 37 (142), North 87 (151), South 21 (134), West 86 (116)
Left 23: East 14 (142), North 0 (151), South 9 (134), West 0 (116)
Others 170: East 59 (142), North 37 (151), South 69 (134), West 6 (116)
The Survey was conducted between March 9- March 16, 2014. More than 29,000 people across the country were interviewed for the poll.
The latest pre-poll survey predicts a big surge for BJP from the last election, taking the seat count for the National Democratic Alliance that it leads to 233. That compares with 159 Lok Sabha seats for NDA in 2009.
The Opinion Poll has found that NDA is set to win 233 seats in the 543-seat parliament while the incumbent UPA-II government is projected to win mere 119 seats.
According to the projection, BJP alone will get 209 (won 116 seats in 2009) seats. The Congress is projected to get only 91 (won 206 seats in 2009) seats--115 less than 2009 seat position in the Lower House.
The non-UPA and non-NDA parties seem to be holding a key share of national vote bank, reveals the survey.
The poll forecast that the BJP would win the lion's share of the vote in many of the big states that typically decide the fate of the polls.
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Let’s look at how these states are faring in the Survey conducted
SOUTH: 134 seats
The non-UPA and non-NDA parties seem to be holding a key share of national vote bank, reveals the survey.
The poll forecast that the BJP would win the lion's share of the vote in many of the big states that typically decide the fate of the polls.
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Let’s look at how these states are faring in the Survey conducted
SOUTH: 134 seats
Karnataka: 15 seats from Karnataka’s 28 could go BJP’s way while 10 seats likely to be won by Congress. JD(S) 3.
Kerala: In Kerala, CPM is forecast to win 5 seats, while Congress could add 8 seats to its kitty out of the 20.
Tamil Nadu: Jayalalithaa’s AIADMK is seen winning 21 seats out of 39 in Tamil Nadu. DMK gets 10. Congress may win only 1 seat in Tamil Nadu.
Andhra Pradesh: Out of 42, 9 seats could go to Congress. TDP 7, TRS 7, YSRC 17. AIMIM to get 1 seat here. Others 1
Goa: Out of 2, Congress and BJP get one seat each here
EAST: 142 seats
Bihar: BJP is predicted to emerge as the largest party in Bihar, with 19 (won 12 seats in 2009) of the state's 40 seats. Lalu’s RJD gets 10. JD-U gets 6. Congress 2. LJP 2. Others 1.
Assam: Out of the 14 seats in Assam, 8 seats could be captured by the Congress. AGP 1, BJP 3, BPF 1. AUDF 1.
West Bengal: Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress is set to win 28 (won 19 seats in 2009) seats outs of 42, CPM could hold on to 7 here while Congress may latch on to 2 in West Bengal. CPI 2, AIFB 1, BJP 1, RSP 1.
Orissa: BJD is set to win 17 out of 21 seats in Orissa, 2 go to the BJP. Congress 2.
Jharkhand: Out of 14 LS seats here, BJP is seen doing well. It could win 10 seats. JMM 1, Congress 1. Others 2.
Andhra Pradesh: Out of 42, 9 seats could go to Congress. TDP 7, TRS 7, YSRC 17. AIMIM to get 1 seat here. Others 1
Goa: Out of 2, Congress and BJP get one seat each here
EAST: 142 seats
Bihar: BJP is predicted to emerge as the largest party in Bihar, with 19 (won 12 seats in 2009) of the state's 40 seats. Lalu’s RJD gets 10. JD-U gets 6. Congress 2. LJP 2. Others 1.
Assam: Out of the 14 seats in Assam, 8 seats could be captured by the Congress. AGP 1, BJP 3, BPF 1. AUDF 1.
West Bengal: Mamata Banerjee’s Trinamool Congress is set to win 28 (won 19 seats in 2009) seats outs of 42, CPM could hold on to 7 here while Congress may latch on to 2 in West Bengal. CPI 2, AIFB 1, BJP 1, RSP 1.
Orissa: BJD is set to win 17 out of 21 seats in Orissa, 2 go to the BJP. Congress 2.
Jharkhand: Out of 14 LS seats here, BJP is seen doing well. It could win 10 seats. JMM 1, Congress 1. Others 2.
WEST: 116 seats
Maharashtra: BJP to win 19 (won 9 in 2009) of the 48 seats in Maharashtra. 8 seats go to Congress in Maharashtra while NCP gets 5 seats. Shiv Sena gets 12 (won 11 in 2009) here. MNS 1, Others 3.
Madhya Pradesh: BJP could bag 23 of Madhya Pradesh’s 29 seats. Congress to manage just 5. BSP 1.
Madhya Pradesh: BJP could bag 23 of Madhya Pradesh’s 29 seats. Congress to manage just 5. BSP 1.
Gujarat: BJP to capture 21 out 26 seats from PM nominee Narendra Modi’s home turf Gujarat. Congress to manage just 5 each in the two states.
Chhattisgarh: 9 out of 11 seats here for the BJP. Congress gets 2.
NORTH: 151 seats
Uttarakhand: 5 out of 5 here for the BJPUttar Pradesh: Of the total 80 seats in UP, 11 are likely to go to the Congress-RLD combine, 38 to BJP, 17 to BSP, 12 to SP, 1 to AAP and 1 to Others.
Rajasthan: Rajasthan again where BJP is in power could give 20 seats to the party from the state’s electoral share. Congress set to win 5 here.Punjab: In Punjab (13 seats), BJP is likely to get 2 seats. Congress could get 6 seats while Shiromani Akali Dal 5.
Delhi: Debutant AAP could get 3 seats out of 7. BJP likely to get 3 while Congress projected to win 1.Haryana: BJP likely to win 9 out of 10 seats. One goes to Congress.
Himachal Pradesh: BJP gets 4 out of 4 here. Congress routed.
Chhattisgarh: 9 out of 11 seats here for the BJP. Congress gets 2.
NORTH: 151 seats
Uttarakhand: 5 out of 5 here for the BJPUttar Pradesh: Of the total 80 seats in UP, 11 are likely to go to the Congress-RLD combine, 38 to BJP, 17 to BSP, 12 to SP, 1 to AAP and 1 to Others.
Rajasthan: Rajasthan again where BJP is in power could give 20 seats to the party from the state’s electoral share. Congress set to win 5 here.Punjab: In Punjab (13 seats), BJP is likely to get 2 seats. Congress could get 6 seats while Shiromani Akali Dal 5.
Delhi: Debutant AAP could get 3 seats out of 7. BJP likely to get 3 while Congress projected to win 1.Haryana: BJP likely to win 9 out of 10 seats. One goes to Congress.
Himachal Pradesh: BJP gets 4 out of 4 here. Congress routed.
Chandigarh: AAP sweeps the single seat available here.
Jammu and Kashmir: UPA gets 3 here. BJP, PDP and others 1 each.NDA’s vote share percentage is seen at 32% while UPA’s is projected at 26%. Left has 5% while Others take around 37% overall.
Jammu and Kashmir: UPA gets 3 here. BJP, PDP and others 1 each.NDA’s vote share percentage is seen at 32% while UPA’s is projected at 26%. Left has 5% while Others take around 37% overall.
Figure below displays the break-up of seats:
UPA 119: East 22 (142) North 27 (151), South 35 (134), West 25 (116)
NDA 233: East 37 (142), North 87 (151), South 21 (134), West 86 (116)
Left 23: East 14 (142), North 0 (151), South 9 (134), West 0 (116)
Others 170: East 59 (142), North 37 (151), South 69 (134), West 6 (116)
The Survey was conducted between March 9- March 16, 2014. More than 29,000 people across the country were interviewed for the poll.
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